The Parable of the Sporting Bet

One day while teaching, Josh was asked, ”Teacher, if you trust your military intelligence and act on what they tell you, and they’re wrong, and they’re wrong, and they’re wrong again, is it wrong to see a pattern and maybe be less trusting?”

Josh spoke thus:

Two friends were watching a sporting event.  Each of the fans supported one of the two opposing teams in the sporting event.

“I thought you were confident about winning,” one friend said to the other.

“I am confident,” the second friend said.

“We’re going to smash you, I seem to remember you saying,” the first friend said.

“We are going to smash you,” the second friend said.

“You said, if I recall correctly,” the first friend said, “That your attackers were far too fast for our defenders.  You said that your attackers were bigger than our defenders.  You said that every time you had the ball you would score.  You said that there was no way our defense could stop your offense.”

“Our attackers are far to fast for your defenders,” the second friend said, “Our attackers are bigger.  We will score.  There is not way your defense can stop our offense.”

“And you said our attackers would be dwarfed by your defenders,” the first friend said, “And that your defenders would smash our attackers.  You said you will stop us from ever scoring.  You said our offense would have no chance of scoring against your defense.”

“Your attackers are dwarfed by our defenders,” the second friend said, “And our defenders will smash your attackers.  We’ll stop you from scoring.  Your offense will have no chance of scoring against our defense.”

“You realize that’s exactly what you said the last time we played,” the first friend said.

“I’m aware of that,” the second friend said.

“And you remember that the last time we played, we crushed you,” the first friend said.

“I remember that,” the second friend said, “But that was last time, this time is different.”

“How is it different?” the first friend asked.

“This time we’re better prepared,” the second friend said, “This time we have better players.”

“You’re confident about that, are you?” the first friend asked.
“I’m confident about that,” the second friend said.

“So you’re willing to bet some cash on that?” the first friend asked, “How much do you want to bet?”

“Are you crazy?” the second friend asked, “Last time we played, you crushed us!”